There are no permanent
friends or foes in international politics, but the interests
are. It has been amply displayed by India and Afghanistan
while dashing another move on the strategic chessboard of
South Asian Region. It is same Hamid Karzai, whose election
to the presidential slot of Afghanistan for the second time
had been silently opposed by India in opposition to Abdullah
Abdullah, the Tajik titan, while Pakistan was reported to be
in side with the former. During one of his visits to
Pakistan, Karzai had passionately stated that “Pakistan and
Afghanistan are conjoined brothers.” Today, he is again in
India seen signing a strategic partnership pact. At the
agreement signing ceremony, Dr. Manmohan Singh, the Indian
premier, said that terrorism was being used “as an
instrument of policy against our citizens,” again maligning
Pakistan without naming it. “The
deal,” he said, “creates an institutional framework for our
future cooperation.” He also notified that agreements on
energy and mining add a new dimension to our economic
relations and that, “India will stand by the people of
Afghanistan as they prepare to assume the responsibility for
their governance and security after the withdrawal of
international forces in 2014.”
The agreement should not be
viewed and analysed on face value. There are yawning
motivations for it. On the one hand, American people are too
wary of the “3-trillion dollar” war, which brings home
nothing but coffins of the American youth with not even a
meagre yield of the gory toil in sight, let alone a
politico-military victory. Americans want to go home in a
state of stalemate before that it turns into a recorded rout
or semblance of defeat. America’s drawdown diagram has upset
both India and Karzai. India looks at the US presence in
Afghanistan as a licence to its presence therein. For Karzai,
the presidential palace is assured haven till such time that
the Americans are operating at full strength in Afghanistan.
If they go home, Karzai may have to take the last flight of
US Army to run his restaurant in New York again. New Delhi
too is not a bad option. This is how the interests of India
and Karzai are seeking convergence in regional politics.
Thus, the End-Game in Afghanistan is heralding a new
Start-Game.
India is seeking an enhanced role in
Afghanistan. It has already made noteworthy inroads into
Afghan polity and society spending nearly US$2 billion out
of the coffers that could have been spent on well-being of
the socially deprived, economically underprivileged and
homeless Indians who sleep in their millions on the
footpaths of major metropolitans like Bombay, Kolkata and
New Delhi. Geo-politics has prevailed over human security,
courtesy to the expansionist Indian mindset. Anyway, Indian
polity is leaving clear signatures that it is not going to
leave space for anyone else on the podium of regional
strategic speech-board. Certainly, it is trying to heap up
political capital against none else but Pakistan.
Principally, Pakistan cannot object to Afghan alignment with
anyone including India. Yet, it has to keep note of any such
move or arrangement that could breed a snake in its
backyard. India understands that Karzai, though a Pashtun,
does not represent popular Pashtun sentiment in Afghanistan.
But a “strategic partnership” would keep the glow of India’s
case alive under the ashes of history that could be set
ablaze any time the sun of India’s goodwill shone in the
heart of an Afghan polity in the days to come. This would
let India keep a strong foot in Afghanistan. It has already
deployed an Indian Air Force squadron on Ayni Air Base of
Tajikistan. Deployment of one more on Bagram Air Base after
American retreat would sound even more viable! India-Karzai
agreement has also shown that they would continue to project
“terrorism” as “instrument of
Pakistan.” Actually, this is
what all India wants Karzai to do; continue crying wolf and
we would do the remaining part of the job.
What Pakistan needs to do
under the present circumstances is not far from one’s
reflection. It needs to create stronger-than-ever nexus with
Afghan populace irrespective of their caste or creed. Meagre
Kabul-Jalalabad Highway would not do enough to reach out to
the spectacles of Afghan mind. They need more. Our
politico-bureaucratic institutions need to think beyond
political and military lines. There is abundant room along
societal welfare line. It is indeed irony of the fate that
while millions are Afghans are still living in Pakistan as
refugees and their president, who too reportedly owns
property in Quetta and Peshawar, goes and signs an agreement
with India, which bears anti-Pakistan smell. We must
remember that clock never clicks the same hour again in the
gallops of history.
The writer holds master’s
degree in Strategic Security Studies from the College of
International Security.____________________________________________________
By Ehsan Mehmood Khan
Affairs, Washington D.C. and is pursuing M.Phil in International Relations from Faculty of Contemporary Studies, Islamabad.
ehsanmkhan@yahoo.com
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