The Afghan cauldron

The mughal president of Afghanistan Hamid Karzai is again at its best,vitriolic on one hand appeasing on other. Pakistan bashing is at centre stage and Pakistan fanny at off stage.
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India is the strategic ally and partner, Pakistan is a twin brother. The person on protamine (the protein in caviar) can only give such an expensive statement, expensive “cause” it is going to cost the political fortune to many. The mughal president of Afghanistan Hamid Karzai is again at its best, vitriolic on one hand and appeasing on the other.Pakistan-bashing is at centre stage and Pakistan fanny at off stage. Give it a break. The political vibes from Afghan president are complicating the already complexed situation of the region.Afghanistan is becoming a rentier state, at least the presidential palace and its environs. Is it going to be the strategic partnership with India or it is going to be the much dreaded strategic encirclement of Pakistan? Pray that it is none; the Afghan tectonics cannot bear the political or diplomatic shenanigans. Who is the sorcerer’s apprentice here?The Afghanistan-India pact is a serious development in the region on three accounts, one, India is the first country with whom Afghanistan has made a military pact, and even the military interventions of Russians on the behest of Afghan rulers were termed as the corollary of a pact of friendship. This is no small an achievement for Indians. Secondly, Americans are now all out to give clear messages, no more Morse codes, the enhancement of Indian stature is at the cost of Pakistan, it is due to the diverging interests which cannot converge being polar opposites. US has entered into an upping the ante policy with India as its corner stone. The stone wall is being built around the bay and barn, every one appreciating the collection of stones from far flung quarries, no one asking the purpose, the necropolis of history is sliding slowly towards the ultimate irrelevance, Afghanistan the graveyard of invaders is the new necropolis of history. History no more judges people by the deeds they under take, history now takes into account the things which you are supposed to do but it is never done, owing to some unknown reasons.Thirdly is the emergence of India as the new economic power house with the fastest growing middle class in the world, it is becoming the pillar of the new economic and political world order. Two regions, the Middle East and Central Asia are going to be dependent on the oceanic India; the third, power houses of pacific rim are also going to be a partner in coming decades.In this scheme Afghanistan is going to be the land mass bridge of diminishing value, because the routes of new silk road will only have the geographical tranquility rest of Afghanistan will be ruled by the perennial war lords, who are to keep coming like the Egyptian locust. The strategic pact of India-Afghanistan envisages military training to the Afghan national army, training to Afghan police, joint explorations of minerals, control of Hajiqak iron ore, building of dams on river Kabul, road and infrastructure development and a number of other security, political, economic, educational, and parliamentarian initiatives which India is under taking in Afghanistan. Virtually it is going to be the bonhomie the Indian way and the indianization of Afghan society.Pakistan as the neighbour has very less concerns till the time Indian mechanizations are in the sector of development only, but military matters are a different ball game. Indians say they are very relevant in the Afghanistan, well relevance is an intricate phenomenon in twenty first century, Pakistan being direct neighbour and the country who hosted the largest number of Afghan refugees in the world is irrelevant and the neighbour’s neighbour is relevant. Kudos and keep it up, it is all imperial hubris.US lost its high moral ground in Afghanistan because the military approach to the Afghan problem made it irrelevant to the situation on ground, a common Afghan thinks then what is the difference between a red army soldier and an American GI. Absence of political approach resulted into a zero sum game. Americans did not give any concept of a political product for Afghan people, the chaos after Russians left was to be dealt by a home grown or at least domestically imbibed political product. Afghanistan was a political failure, but what it got was a doze of military concentrate.A Taliban phenomenon was a reaction to war lordism, so if some one wants to replace Taliban with a better system it is ought to be the political one. But where are the product and the system approach there in. War is too serious a thing to be left to the Generals, even if they are trained in the first world. Pakistan is an easy punching bag, thanks to the national tradition of malmasti (hospitality). Admiral Mullen calls Haqqani network as the veritable arm of Pakistani intelligence service. Who is going to establish the alibi or the link to what ever is said, believed and displayed through words and deeds?Pakistan was always sensitive to Indian presence in Afghanistan, the allies were also conscious of the fact, now they are behaving in the alien way, it is not a mere change of heart, it is a change which is skin deep and up to the bone, the DNA of friendship has trans mutated.Pragati, an Indian magazine in year 2008 dedicated one of its special issues to the topic that India should have military presence in Afghanistan. Indian trainers are not new in Afghanistan; the rebuke to Pakistan is definitely new. There had been ebbs and flow in the relations of two countries (Pakistan and US), the lean years and the mean years, the average outcome remained within the halo of friendship.For the first time the things are pretty complexed between Pakistan and USA. The pent up emotions are the product of misreading the lessons of relevance. The hype of bad patch is not good for both the countries, empires die not from their strategic fatigue, and it is the imperial hubris which moves the corner stones of a giant plinth.If India is to be taken as the player, then it is to be in the political plane otherwise it is not to be. The backyard analogy apply equally every where, more so to the Hindukush Mountains, a name itself implies the untold stories of yester years.
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By Abid Latif Sindhu (Frontier Post)

Secret Strategic Games in Afghanistan

CIA, RAW and Mossad have been destabilising Pakistan to 'denuclearise' the latter. On the other side, Indian and Afghan rulers want to entrap the US permanently in Afghanistan in order to achieve their secret designs by damaging American global and regional interests. So in Afghanistan, multiple secret strategic games are being played.
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Since the US-led NATO forces occupied Afghanistan, stiff resistance of the Taliban militants which created unending lawlessness in the country has made it a most conducive place for the foreign countries and the Karzai-led regime to play secret strategic games to obtain their clandestine aims.First strategic game is collective, which includes the US, India, Israel and country’s President Hamid Karzai who are in collusion to fulfill their covert strategic designs against Pakistan, Iran and China.Under the cover of the US-led blame game against Islamabad regarding cross-border terrorism, Talibanisation of Afghanistan and Pakistan, secret agencies like American CIA, Indian RAW and Israeli Mossad have well-established their networks in Afghanistan. Particularly, India has been running secret operations against Pakistan from its consulates in Mazar-i-Sharif, Jalalabad, Kandhar and other sensitive parts of the Pak-Afghan border. New Delhi has not only increased its military troops in the country, but has also decided to set up cantonments. In this respect, US and regime of Hamid Karzai encouraged India in using the Border Roads Organisation in constructing the ring roads by employing Indo-Tibeten police force for security. On october 5 this year, India and Afghanistan signed a strategic partnership agreement, deepening their security and economic ties. In this regard, India will help Kabul in diversified projects. The deal will guarantee Afghanistan’s security as foreign troops begin withdrawing from the country, which will be completed in 2014. However, apparently, it is open strategic agreement, but secretly India wants to further strengthen its grip in Afghanistan not only to get strategic depth against Islamabad, but also to use the war-torn country in destabilising Pakistan. For this purpose, with the tactical support of CIA and Mossad, and assistance of Afghan Khad, RAW, based in Afghanistan has been sending well-trained agents and militants in Pakistan, who have joined the ranks and files of the Taliban. Posing themselves as the Pakistan Taliban, they not only attack the check posts of Pakistan’s security forces, but also target schools and mosques. They are continuously conducting suicide attacks and targeted killings, fuelling sectarian violence in our country. Now, Indian support to insurgency in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Baloch separatism has become a routine matter.Drug and kidnappings are some other source of Indian income. According to an estimate, world’s 90% heroin is cultivated in Afghanistan. So money earned through drug-smuggling and hostage-takings is utilised in buying weapons, being sent to the foreign agents and the insurgents in Pakistan.Nevertheless, besides backing subversive acts in Pakistan, India and US are also supporting the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) and other Balochi separatist leaders who have taken shelter in Afghanistan. For example, Brahmdagh Bugti has been operating against Pakistan from Kabul. On July 23, 2008, in an interview with the BBC, Brahmdagh Bugti had stated that they “have the right to accept foreign arms and ammunition from anywhere including India.”Another CIA and Indian-supported separatist group, Jundollah (God’s soldiers) is also working against the cordial relationship of Pakistan with China and Iran. In the past few years, Jundollah kidnapped and murdered a number of Chinese and Iranian nationals in Pakistan. This insurgent group has not only been committing acts of sabotage in Pakistan, but also in Iran. In this respect, on October 18, 2009, a suicide attack had killed several officers in the Iranian Sistan-Balochistan. On December 15, 2010, two suicide bombers blew themselves up near a mosque in Iran, killing 39 people. Jundullah claimed responsibility for these incidents. Regarding all these attacks, Tehran had directly accused CIA for funding of that type of terrorist attacks, while diverting the attention of Iran towards Islamabad through secret propaganda.In this context, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei revealed, “The bloody actions being committed in Iraq, Pakistan and Iran are aimed at creating a division between the Shias and Sunnis…those who carry out these terrorist actions are directly or indirectly foreign agents.”It is noteworthy that in the recent years, several persons died in the terror-incidents and ethnic riots occurred in various regions of China’s Xinjiang — the largely populated Muslim province. For all the incidents, India blamed Pakistani militants for supporting the insurgency in order to deteriorate Sino-Pak ties. In fact, New Delhi which had given shelter to the Tibetan spiritual leader, Dalai Lama and his militants have been playing a key role in assisting upsurge in the Tibetan and Muslim areas of China. Recently, US President Obama also met Dalai Lama so as to indirectly encourage insurgency in China.It is of particular attention that Balochistan’s ideal geo-strategic location with Gwadar seaport, connecting rest of the world with Central Asia irritates America and India. So, it is due to multiple strategic benefits that the US which signed a nuclear deal with India in 2008, intends to control Balochistan in containing China and subduing Iran. Second secret strategic game is being played by India and Afghan President Karzai against the US-led forces in Afghanistan. In this regard, if the US-led NATO forces withdraw from Afghanistan, Karzai regime will fall like a house of cards. Even New Delhi will not be in a position to maintain its network in wake of the successful guerilla warfare of the Taliban. Therefore, India and Karzai have been doing their utmost to convince Washington to have a long stay in Afghanistan. Before his trip to Washington in 2009, during his interview to the Washington Post and Newsweek, Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh had said that he would encourage the American leadership to stay in Afghanistan. Otherwise, Afghanistan could fall into a civil war if the US exited. But Singh and Karzai were frustrated when US and NATO countries repeatedly remarked to withdraw their forces from Afghanistan. Failed in their objective, Indian and Afghan rulers, with the help of RAW and Khad, started acting upon dirty tricks to get the foreign forces——especially those of America entangled in Afghanistan permanently. In this context, with help of some so-called Muslims, RAW and Khad have increased attacks inside Afghanistan, particularly targeting American soldiers with the sole aim to revive old blame game of the US against Islamabad and ISI in relation to cross-border-terrorism. In these terms, New Delhi and Kabul succeeded in their connivance against the US when the latter disclosed that it will maintain reasonable contingency in Afghanistan after the withdrawal of forces. Recently, tension increased in Pak-US relations when American retiring top military officer Mike Mullen accused that Pakistan is waging a ‘proxy war’ in Afghanistan with the help of country’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), alleging for a recent assault on the US embassy in Kabul. Mullen’s irresponsible statement was also repeated by the other US high officials who issued stern warning about Islamabad’s failure to crack down on the Haqqani network, raising the possibility of US unilateral action in North Waziristan. On September 27, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, while endorsing US Admiral Mike Mullen’s allegations regarding ISI and Haqqani network, said, “There is now growing awareness of the groups which indulge in these nefarious activities.” Kazai and his top officials also shared Mullen’s allegations. Besides, on October 5, President Karzai accused Pakistan of supporting militant networks in his country and of having links to the recent assassination of peace envoy and former president Burhanuddin Rabbani. Nonetheless, in wake of escalating tension between Islamabad and Washington, Pakistan’s civil and military leadership has rejected allegations of the foreign conspirators. While, in the recent past, the US-led intermittent attacks by the armed militants who crossed inside Pakistan from Afghanistan, have continued.In this connection, on October 6, Pakistan’s Chief of Army Staff, General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani issued a warning to Afghanistan to stop cross-border incursions in Pakistan. While Prime Minister Syed Yousuf Raza Gilani has disclosed, “Certain forces are at work to destabilise Afghanistan and Karzai should not play in their hands.”Notably, regarding Indian activities in Afghanistan the then NATO commander, Gen. McChrystal had pointed out: “Indian political and economic influence is increasing in Afghanistan…is likely to exacerbate regional tensions.”In fact, under the pretext of Haqqani group, CIA, RAW and Mossad have been destabilising Pakistan to ‘denuclearise’ the latter. On the other side, Indian and Afghan rulers want to entrap the US permanently in Afghanistan in order to achieve their secret designs by damaging American global and regional interests. So in Afghanistan, multiple secret strategic games are being played.
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By Sajjad Shaukat (sajjad_logic@yahoo.com)

India promises to prop up Karzai

 Delhi would do well to remember as well that all its support to the regime of Mohammad Najibullah-political, military, security and economic- still did not prevent the regime from collapsing in 1992 when the mujahideen came knocking on the doors of Kabul.
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President Hamid Karzai’s two-day visit to India presages a major realignment of regional powers over the Afghan problem. India has taken a carefully thought-out decision to pitch for a key role in the so-called “endgame” in Afghanistan, commensurate with its aspirations as a regional power and in defence of what it considers to be its vital interests against the backdrop of a developing situation about which it is genuinely concerned.

India, however, will not get away unchallenged in its newfound "pro-activism" and how the ensuing regional rivalries will play out in the coming period remains far from clear. The cloudy horizons may have got just a bit darker as Karzai's presidential jet takes off from the Indian capital on Wednesday.

Karzai, too, had a mission on his mind as he headed for Delhi. Late on Monday evening, on the eve of his departure for India, he spoke candidly about his political predicament. His much-touted reconciliation policy toward the Taliban is at a dead-end and for crafting a way forward he needs to get a fresh mandate from a loya jirga (tribal assembly) that will be convened for the purpose.

He blamed Pakistan for being uncooperative in the peace process and yet he acknowledged that he needed to talk to Islamabad, being mindful that it also is what the United States and the international community want him to do - despite the wave of "anti-Pakistan" sentiments sweeping large sections of Afghan society and notwithstanding the deep and entrenched aversion to any truck with Pakistan over the Taliban that many figures within his own coalition harbor.

The leadership in Kabul has traditionally reached out to India as a counterweight to Pakistan. Karzai's visit to Delhi (his second visit in seven months) falls within that classic mould, but what gives added dimension to his mission is that his principal political allies at home - groups belonging to the erstwhile Northern Alliance (NA) - also happen to be forces closely associated with India for the past several years.

His two vice presidents, Mohammed Fahim and Karim Khalili, were leading figures in the anti-Taliban resistance, which India promoted, and Fahim, in particular, is the inheritor of the war machine of the late Ahmad Shah Massoud who was substantially supported by the Indian security establishment during the anti-Taliban resistance of the late 1990s.

If Delhi has decided to take the plunge and stand overtly behind the Karzai-Fahim-Khalili axis of power that is taking shape in Kabul, it is because the Indian political leadership is acceding to certain compelling reasons given by the country's security establishment.

First and foremost, there is deep disillusionment over United States policies and a resultant feeling that India must pursue an independent course in Afghanistan to safeguard its security interests. The US's pattern of intermittently quarreling and depending on Pakistan to advance its regional strategy in Afghanistan exasperates the Indian establishment.

Just as Indian pundits concluded that the recent rift in US-Pakistan ties was far too advanced to lend itself to repair, Washington has once again kissed and made up with Islamabad. New details have begun emerging that the US Central Intelligence Agency might have taken the help of Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence in contacting the Haqqani network and that the US would have offered the Haqqanis a place in the Afghan government.

The fact that the US and Pakistan may be working together to finesse the Haqqani network (which India holds responsible for the two murderous attacks on its embassy in Kabul) and bring it into the peace process horrifies Delhi and it runs contrary to repeated American assurances to Indian officials.

Besides, Delhi is convinced that Pakistan masterminded the assassination of the head of the Afghan High Peace Council, Burhanuddin Rabbani, who was close to India, as part of a calculated plan to systematically remove from the political chessboard all figures who may challenge Taliban supremacy in the coming period, especially as the drawdown of US troops accelerates.

Three-pronged strategy

Within the framework of the dialogue with Pakistan, the Indian leadership had somewhat exercised self-restraint in robustly advancing its interests in Afghanistan in the recent period, but the Indian security establishment seems to have concluded that Islamabad is pushing the envelope nonetheless, aimed at exterminating all Indian influence in Kabul in a future set-up dominated by its Taliban proxies.

Equally, Delhi is not convinced about the efficacy of the troop drawdown plan of President Barack Obama. Ironically, India shares the skepticism recently voiced by Pakistani army chief Pervez Kiani as to whether the 2014 timeline to hand over responsibility to the Afghan security forces is realistic under the prevailing circumstances.

Thus, India is taking matters in its own hands, so to speak, to do what it can to ensure that the present power structure in Kabul (which is very well-disposed toward India) gains resilience in the near future.

The concrete outcome of Karzai's visit to India is three-fold and it reveals the range of Indian thinking. First, India is poised to step in for the first time in the post-Taliban era to fulfill a role that it used to perform before the mujahideen takeover in 1992 when Afghanistan was under the communist regime - namely, a commitment to be a mentor of the Afghan security forces.

Second, Delhi is making a strong pitch for a major role in the exploitation of the multi-trillion dollar mineral resources in Afghanistan. Third, India and Afghanistan have decided to work on their respective bilateral cooperation grids with Iran with a view to developing a trade and transit route through Iranian territory, bypassing Pakistan.

Clearly, India visualizes the non-Pashtun groups in central and northern Afghanistan as a bulwark against a Taliban takeover in the country. Yet, India will insistently maintain that its dealings with these groups will be strictly within the framework of a state-to-state relationship, given the alchemy of the political structure in Kabul supporting Karzai.

The point is, Tajik officer corps practically dominate Afghan forces and Delhi can be confident that they can be trusted to resist a return to power of forces such as the Haqqanis supported by Pakistan. In short, Delhi is virtually falling back on the raison d'etre of its policy to support the NA in the late 1990s.

Delhi doesn't rule out the possibility of another outbreak of civil war in Afghanistan. It is reviving its interest in "operationalizing" an airstrip it built in Tajikistan out of its own funds and has sought permission from Dushanbe to reopen a military hospital it built in the late 1990s at Farkhor on the Afghan border to provide medical treatment to the NA warriors fighting the Taliban.

Pakistan is sure to perceive the forthcoming Indian role as mentor of the Afghan forces and Delhi's decision to resuscitate its infrastructure in Tajikistan that used to provide underpinnings for the erstwhile NA's militia as moves directed against its "legitimate interests" in Afghanistan. The stage is getting set for a rather vicious eruption of Pakistan-India animosities. Pakistan's "asymmetrical" response in the past typically took the form of terrorist strikes at targeted Indian interests.

Indian restraint was commendable in the past when faced with the challenge of terrorism, but there is a school of thinking in the Indian strategic community that it is about time that India calls the Pakistani bluff. At any rate, India seems to anticipate troubled times ahead and has just begun a massive two-month military exercise on its desert border with Pakistan in Rajasthan sector, involving some 20,000 troops belonging to its strike corps and its air force, with an ambitious agenda to test its offensive plans to capture and hold enemy territory deep inside.

Second, Delhi is encouraging Indian business to invest in Afghanistan's mineral resources by way of emerging as a "stakeholder" in that country. Delhi is currently pushing a policy of acquiring strategic "assets" abroad and Afghanistan's vast mineral resources offer big scope for Indian investment.

Indian corporate giants are getting interested in the proposition, too. An Indian consortium is preparing to participate in the tender for the Hajigak iron ores in Afghanistan, which is estimated to hold reserves of 1.8 billion tonnes. The two memoranda of understanding signed during Karzai's visit to Delhi - relating to the field of mineral exploitation and the development of hydrocarbon - signal the shared interest of the two countries in facilitating large-scale Indian investments in Afghanistan.

To be sure, India's moves in this regard will be keenly watched by other countries, especially China and the US, which are already neck-deep in the scramble for resources in Central Asia. For the first time in the post-Soviet era, India is spreading its wings in the region and is scouting for "assets". While it lags far behind China, it seems to estimate that the game is far from over.

Third, India's main challenge with regard to a trade and transit route to Afghanistan needs to be addressed in priority terms and Karzai's visit provided a timely opportunity to have consultations. Delhi has vaguely spoken for over a decade regarding the importance of a Silk Route via Iran, but a new criticality has arisen. The point is, India cannot hope to have an effective Central Asia policy in the absence of a viable and dependable access route to the region.

Delhi views Iran as the obvious choice as a partner in this regard. Despite the improved climate in India-Pakistan relations and notwithstanding the stirrings of a more relaxed trade regime between the two countries, no one in his senses in Delhi quite expects that Islamabad would facilitate an access route for India's trade and investment ties with Afghanistan where the two countries are locked in rivalry.

Pakistan is dragging its feet with regard to the implementation of the trade and transit treaty it signed with Afghanistan under sustained American prodding. India does not see any prospect of Pakistan agreeing to include it in this treaty, as propagated by US officials.

Equally, India is far from optimistic about the US's grandiose Silk Road project connecting the Central Asian and South Asian regions, which is likely to be presented as a major regional initiative at a forthcoming conference in Istanbul on November 2.

Iran gets two suitors

Thus, finally, after some five years of neglect, Delhi has begun dusting up the framework of India-Iran strategic cooperation. This is no easy task, as Tehran harbors a deep sense of hurt that Delhi succumbed to US (and Israeli) pressures to atrophy India's ties with Tehran. But a beginning has been made in a dramatic manner recently with Delhi seeking a bilateral meeting with Tehran at the highest level of leadership and the latter promptly agreeing.

The fact that last month's meeting between Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and Iranian President Mahmud Ahmadinejad took place in New York - on American soil - was in itself invested with great political symbolism. Clearly, Delhi was preparing the ground for Karzai's forthcoming visit.

At any rate, Manmohan seems to have taken a personal interest in breathing life into the India-Iran strategic partnership, which many hold him as responsible for stifling in recent years in deference to American wishes.

India's rapprochement with Iran coincides with an upswing in the latter's ties with Pakistan. Iran is going to be assiduously courted by the two South Asian rivals. Pakistan's efforts will be to forge a matrix of commonality of interests with Iran over the Afghan situation and India's attempt will also be orientated in the same direction. How Iran balances its multiple choices will form an absorbing template of regional politics.

Pakistan will strive its utmost to avoid a replay of the 1990s when Iran shared common interests with India to resist the Taliban regime. This can only be done by Islamabad accommodating Iran's interests in Afghanistan, while, on the other hand, Delhi will strive to reinforce its shared concerns with Tehran over the prospect of the ascendancy of forces who enjoyed established links with al-Qaeda in the past.

Pakistan will factor in that the key to keeping India out of Afghanistan and the Central Asian chessboard will depend on its ability to "neutralize" Iran. On the contrary, India will view Iran's cooperation as integral to its strategy toward Afghanistan and Central Asia.

This curious turn to regional politics gives Iran much strategic space to maneuver vis-a-vis the US. Washington's "containment" strategy toward Iran will be virtually rendered ineffectual if India and Pakistan ignore it and forge strategic links with Tehran.

The US will inevitably come to view Indian "proactivism" in Afghanistan with a sense of disquiet, just as it hopes to work with Pakistan to reconcile the Taliban and to bring on board the intransigent Haqqanis. Again, India is identifying itself as, arguably, the strongest supporter of Karzai in the region at a time when the US is patently disillusioned with the Afghan leader and is counting on the remaining part of his second term in office to somehow get over so that by 2014 a new leadership can take over in Kabul.

The US and its Western allies and the Afghan opposition have openly welcomed Karzai's hints that he may not seek a third term (which the Afghan constitution also forbids) but they would know that the doughty Afghan leader possesses acute political instincts and they may not have heard the last word on the matter. India's seamless support for Karzai could become a headache for the US and its allies to dethrone him.

Delhi, on the other hand, will assess that its interests are best served in an alliance between Karzai and his erstwhile NA allies perpetuating their hold on power. The bottom line is that Karzai's coalition comprising powerful NA satraps serves Indian interests. The strong expression of support to Karzai by Manmohan leaves no one in doubt as to the thinking in the security establishment in Delhi that India should go the whole hog to prop up anti-Taliban forces in Afghanistan.

At a press conference with Karzai on Tuesday, Manmohan said meaningfully, "India will stand by the people of Afghanistan as they prepare to assume the responsibility for their governance and security after the withdrawal of international forces in 2014."

Karzai echoed his trust in the Indian commitment by pointing out that the strategic agreement with India that was signed during his visit was the first such agreement Afghanistan had ever concluded. He seems to have implied that he was prepared to accord India the pride of place as one of his most valuable partners. (The US-Afghan strategic agreement is due to be signed by the time of the Bonn conference in December.)

Again, the US will have misgivings about the decision by Afghanistan and India to rev up a trade and transit route via Iran. The very purpose of the US's Silk Road project with Afghanistan as a regional hub, which it is pushing with its European allies, aims at sidelining Iran (and Russia) in the "new great game". Whereas, Delhi now is showing preference to Iran for providing it with an access route that connects it with Central Asia (and Russia).

In overall terms, Washington is not going to be enthused by these Indian moves in Afghanistan, even if it doesn't pour cold water on Delhi's high enthusiasm for the Karzai regime. The US special representative on Afghanistan, Marc Grossman, is scheduled to visit India this week and will patiently search for rational explanations by his Indian interlocutors, while keeping his counsel to himself.

The big question, therefore, remains to be answered: Will it prove to be within Delhi's capacity to advance on its own such an ambitious agenda of all-round strategic partnership with Afghanistan? High hopes have been raised during Karzai's visit, but the pitfalls of Indian policies cannot escape notice, either.

India's record of fulfilling its commitments to its "allies" (not only Afghan) has been patchy. India repeatedly failed at critical points to bolster the NA despite its pleas when the Taliban juggernaut began rolling into the Amu Darya region. Meanwhile, Karzai would also know Pakistan's centrality in any Afghan peace process and India can never be a substitute for Pakistan.

The situation around Iran is central to the US's Middle East policies and the present government in Delhi may lack the grit to indulge in an act of strategic defiance of Washington. The Indian elites are not inclined to allow any serious contradiction to arise in the US-India strategic partnership in relation to the region - although they view with extreme distaste Washington's overtures to Beijing to step in as a provider of security for Afghanistan and as a "stakeholder" in the regional stability of South Asia.

All that can be said for certain for the present is that the Indian military and security establishment may have scored a huge propaganda point over its rivals in Rawalpindi and Islamabad by succeeding after six years of persistent effort to gain the status of a mentor of the Afghan armed forces. There is a heady feeling among the strategic community that India has at long last become a player in the "great game".

Will Indian military advisors be stationed in Afghanistan? If that happens, the Indian political leadership cannot overlook the grim prospect of the nascent dialogue process with Pakistan disintegrating in no time. It is highly unlikely that Islamabad (or Washington) would countenance an Indian military presence in the Hindu Kush.

At the end of it all, Delhi would do well to remember as well that all its support to the regime of Mohammad Najibullah - political, military, security and economic - still did not prevent the regime from collapsing in 1992 when the mujahideen came knocking on the doors of Kabul.

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By M K Bhadrakumar (The Statesman)

Kidnapping and arms smuggling in Afghanistan

 Some Afghan experts are of the opinion that several ethnic sectarian groups of the country distribute sophisticated weapons among their members for the future civil war after the NATO and US withdrawal in 2014. Local militias and political groups have strated young unemployed men in Badakhshan, Wakhan and among groups settled near China's border.
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By Musa Khan Jalalzai

“Don’t go to Afghanistan if you want to save the money.” These are the words quoted from a recently filed news story of my journalist friend returned from Afghanistan. Over the last three decades of civil war, Afghanistan largely depended on the black market economy, criminal trade, and smuggling of opium, heroin and arms. Drug and arms trafficking business and jihadism left devastating effects on the lives of common Afghans. The recent large-scale transfer of arms to Afghanistan from Central Asia and its distribution across the country is a bigger threat to the stability of the country as these arms may be used in a future civil war against ethnic rivals. From northern Afghanistan, these weapons are further transferred to Pakistan via the Hindu Kush mountainous regions.

In fact, kidnapping for ransom and smuggling of weapons from Central Asia has been a profitable business in Afghanistan since the fall of the Taliban regime in 2001. Some underground groups who enjoy the protection of the Afghan police, intelligence officials and private militias across the country, pick up men, women, children, journalists and businessmen one by one either for the purposes of human trafficking, the organs business or for ransom. Everybody knows who they are and which political or religious group they represent.

Last year, a US embassy report in Kabul revealed that Afghan boys, girls, men and women are trafficked within the country for forced prostitution and forced labour in brick kilns, carpet-making factories and domestic service. In 2010, over 200 men and women were kidnapped by unknown criminals with the help of corrupt Afghan police who have already been involved in the illegal businesses of weapons and ‘China white’ heroin.

Kidnapping and the illegal drug business are the most powerful industries in today’s Afghanistan. Kidnappings are common in many parts of Afghanistan. When the US invaded the country, kidnappings were rare and mostly politically motivated. The average ransom amount was a hefty sum for many Afghans, $ 10,000. In 2011, the rate reached up to $ 200,000. Consequently, these criminals became an influential land mafia, promoted the kidnapping business, and used their purchased empty houses and plazas as temporary prisons for their victims. Hardcore criminal elements from different political and sectarian groups, hired by the land mafia to protect their embezzled estates, have started settling down in urban areas and polluted the local scenario with their criminal activities. They enjoy readymade facilities to carry out their illegal business. These religious and political mafia groups are making millions of dollars from the illicit drug trade, security charges on convoys, extortion and financial contributions from charities and wealthy individuals from various Arab states. The international aspect of this business is that some states do not want the involvement of their political and geographical rival states in the reconstruction of Afghanistan; they are supporting the kidnapping and killing of workers of some reconstruction companies.

The business of kidnapping for ransom supports terrorist Taliban in both Pakistan and Afghanistan. Afghan and Pakistani criminal groups involved in kidnapping for ransom in Afghanistan, Punjab, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan are financially aiding the Afghan and Pakistani Taliban networks. In Punjab, one of my police officer friends told me in a telephonic conversation that some 100 to 150 people are being kidnapped in the province every month. “We have reports that groups involved in the ransom business have links with the Taliban of Waziristan and Afghanistan-based militants,” he told me. These underground and open groups have spawned an epidemic of ransom kidnappings.

In the Afghan capital, hundreds of people are being kidnapped every year. These criminals who enjoy the support of the Taliban, killed many captives when demands for ransom went unmet. We still remember the brutal killing of a British woman kidnapped for ransom in 2011, because most criminal groups’ kidnappings end either in the payment of a ransom or the death of the hostage. The money these groups retrieve from this business goes into the pockets of four categories of people. The first group is the Taliban who help them in kidnapping locals and foreigners, the second is the corrupt officials of the Afghan police, the third is elements in the Afghan intelligence and the fourth group that receive its share is the private warlords’ militias.

Another formidable aspect of the business is that as these groups belong to sectarian and political parties of Afghanistan, they spend a lot of money on the purchase of weapons from across Central Asia and Iran. Some Afghan experts are of the opinion that several ethnic and sectarian groups of the country distribute sophisticated weapons among their members for the future civil war after the NATO and US withdrawal in 2014. Local militias and political groups have started arming young unemployed men in Badakhshan, Wakhan and among groups settled near China’s border. Ethnic thugs in northern provinces have been terrorising opponents, extorting money, demanding sanctuary, and kidnapping for ransom. Some military experts understand that the weapons they purchase go into the hands of Pakistani Taliban groups in Waziristan and the FATA regions. Improvised explosive devices smuggled into Pakistan have become an effective weapon against civilians in the country.

Heartbreaking reports recently revealed the illegal weapons business in northern Afghanistan. Local criminals, police and intelligence officials are jointly running the profitable business of sophisticated weapons in Kunduz, Mazar-e-Sharif, Herat, Takhar, Balkh, Samangan, Parwan and Baghlan provinces. A police commander from Afghanistan told me that smugglers use the Darqad Pass between Tajikistan and the northern Afghan province of Takhar for weapons smuggling. Military experts understand that this is a crucial stage for preparation of forces for a future civil war in the country.

A source in the Afghan interior ministry told me that police vehicles are being used in narcotics and weapons smuggling across the country. Military relations among Afghan and Tajik and Uzbek Islamist insurgents from Central Asia are friendly. Afghanistan shares porous borders with Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, which are used by some subversive elements to smuggle weapons into the country. These elements will be helpful in igniting the fire of civil war in Afghanistan.

The writer is the author of Britain’s National Security Challenges and Punjabi Taliban. He can be reached at zai.musakhan222@gmail.com

[Daily Times]