Rizwan AsgharRevelations by the Pentagon and the US Geological Survey that Afghanistan contains vast riches in untapped mineral deposits is not very welcome news: the discovery will not bring benefits to the Afghan people. According to some estimates, Afghanistan contains at least $1 trillion worth of minerals, including gold, cobalt, iron ore, copper, aluminium, silver and lithium. They are particularly concentrated in the border areas between Pakistan and Afghanistan. The country promises to become the "Saudi Arabia of lithium."
Normally, the discovery would have been great news. The wealth would have attracted a flood of foreign investment and led to the development of the impoverished country. But the discovery is a bad omen for the population of occupied Afghanistan. The presence of the minerals may lead to greater conflict in a country which already has more than its share of crises, the war being just one of them. The vast scale of Afghanistan's mineral wealth is likely to transform the region into an arena of intense competition between the various competing actors. The presence of natural deposits can often turn out to be a curse rather than a blessing for the peoples of the countries concerned. For instance, the discovery of oil has led to unending conflict in some regions where it was found.
In an attempt to get hold of the resources, international and regional powers will jump into the likely fray resulting from the discovery of the minerals. The Indian mines minister recently announced that India will take measure for training of Afghans and to establish avenues for bilateral cooperation in the field of minerals. China, which also intends to dominate the development of Afghanistan's mineral wealth, has already signed a $3 billion deal to mine cooper in Afghanistan's Logar province. As well as the United States itself, Russia and Iran will also try to get involved. All this will lead to still greater instability in the country and the region.
The discovery is certain to have an impact on the US-Nato operations in Afghanistan. The Taliban can be expected to put up a greater fight so as to retain control of areas known to be mineral-rich. At the same time, it could spark fierce competition among the various tribal factions in Afghanistan.
It had already been known that Afghanistan is well endowed with mineral reserves, but most of the resources remained unexploited due to the constant war situation since the end of the 1970s, as well as the country's rugged terrain and lack of infrastructure. Meanwhile, lack of technical know-how and outdated technology hampered the process.
Some analysts say that the ominous timing is of the discovery is an attempt by the US military establishment to continue the occupation of the country. A geological survey of Afghanistan had been carried out by the US in 2007 but its findings were deliberately kept undisclosed. According to the New York Times, NATO officials revealed that private security companies "are using American money to bribe the Taliban" to fuel the insurgency. So it is clear that part of the US military establishment is not in favour of the withdrawal of US forces, which is scheduled to start in July 2011. Apparently these elements are leaving no stone unturned to force US forces to continue their presence in Afghanistan. This could seriously undermine US efforts to win over Afghans, in a bid to defeat the Taliban.
Revelation of the discovery of the minerals in Afghanistan can also be an attempt to mobilise political support by some vested interests intending to keep the US occupation of the country well beyond July 2011, the time announced by President Obama for the beginning of the process of withdrawal of US troops. The revelation will also invigorate the interest of other allied countries in Afghanistan. It may also be an attempt to create the false impression that if the US departs from Afghanistan soon, it will lose out the vast amount of mineral wealth to other regional powers like Russia and China, India and Iran.
The writer is a freelance contributor. Email: rizwanasghar7@yahoo.com
[The News]
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