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The military potential of the Islamic Republic of Iran (IRI) consists of two parts: the IRI Armed Forces (the Army, the Air Force and Missile Defense and the Navy) and the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, which in effect is parallel to the IRI Armed Forces. The data on the structure and the quantity of the IRI military potential are secret differ a lot between various sources. Experts are unanimous in their assessment that Iran has the most numerous and powerful army in the region, although its military budget is way below that of its neighbors (between 7 and 10 billion USD).
The IRI Armed Forces
The Army is equipped with numerous portable
anti-aircraft missile complexes as well as antitank self guided missiles
of Soviet and Russian design.
The “trumps” of the IRI Navy are three Russian submarines of the “Paltus” Project made in early 1990s.
The
missile defense consists of Soviet/Russian design missiles - at least
10 surface-to-air missiles S-200, 45 S-75 missiles, 29 «TOR-M1» and 30
British Rapier short-range missiles. It was reported that a few S-300
missiles were brought from Belorussia.
The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps
In the event of a full scale military conflict it is the
Navy of the Revolutionary Guard Corps and the national Navy that are
designated to strike back at the aggressor in the Persian Gulf and the
Strait of Hormuz.
According to the US data received
from open sources the combination of light fast naval ships, small
aircraft, missiles and mines that is currently taking shape can incur
severe damage to the Iranian enemy's Naval fleet. As the Cato Institute
military analyst David Isenberg wrote in the Asia Times, as the large
scale US Naval exercise in the Persian Gulf in 2002 showed, in the event
of a sudden massive attack up to 16 US naval ships would be destroyed
(including 10 cruisers and 5-6 landing craft) and over 20 thousand US
military personnel would be killed. The exercise that included practical
maneuvers and computer modeling were conducted under the command of the
Marine Corps' Lieutenant General Paul Van Riper. The expert mentioned
that «in the years that followed Iran invested a lot in order to
facilitate the use of the Riper strategy».
Possible counter actions of Iran in the
Persian Gulf basin against the US Naval forces supported by the NATO
ships and aircraft (potentially also Israeli):
The Persian Gulf is an area of responsibility not of the
Iranian Navy but of the Revolutionary Guards that have seven important
bases there (Bandar e-Abbas, Khorramshar, Larak, Abu Musa, Al Farsiyah,
Halul, Sirri).
In total the Revolutionary Guards'
Navy has no less than 55 missile, torpedo and patrol boats, including
those of Iranian design and construction, with anti-vessel missiles and
100 speed-boats also equipped with hand held surface-to-air missile
complexes. The boats are hard to detect by the radars.
Iran
can place mines in the Persian Gulf. Iran has at least 2000 mines (2004
year estimate) that can be deployed from small vessels, boats and
commercial ships. Iranian military swimmers have special submersible
vehicles for secret transportation of mines, torpedoes and enlisted men.
According
to the CIA estimates, Iran has at its disposal the Chinese EM52
anti-vessel reactive mine, as well as potentially modern Russian mines
of magnetic, acoustic type or based on the principle of change in
pressure. Iran also produces its own explosive devices even if they are
not so technically advanced... The mines are the key threat. Usually the
US deploys in the Gulf few means to combat the mines. As far as the
other Arab countries in the region go, they have only five Saudi mine
layers and several helicopters of various levels of combat readiness and
preparation of the military personnel.
The Iranian
Navy can employ three diesel submarines of the «Paltus» Project of
Soviet/Russian design (another name is «Varshanyanka» which coincides
with the NATO «Kilo» classification). Even according to the world
standards those are the least detectable submarines. The submarine is
equipped with 18 torpedoes, 24 mines, as well as six «Strela-3M»
surface-to-air missiles. There is an unknown number of Iranian
mini-submarines Ghadir-SS-3; they all can carry the «intelligent»
torpedoes and mines. Various sources estimate that Iran can possess up
to 16-19 submarines of this type.
The Revolutionary
Guards' Air Force can strike from the air. The Revolutionary Guards' Air
Force has various types of drones at their disposal and control Iran's
strategic missiles units. By the year 2010 Iran designed Karrar and R’ad
drones. Both aircraft have a range of over 1,000 km and can destroy
targets with guided missiles. Not only drones can attack the enemy, but
also hydroplanes, planes and helicopters. Besides that, the
Revolutionary Guards' Air Force has one brigade of short-range ballistic
missiles Shahab-1 (300-500-700 km) comprising of 12-18 launching units;
one battalion of medium-range ballistic missiles Shahab-3 (1200-1280
km), comprising of 6 launching units with 4 missiles each. They can
strike at the US Navy's military targets on land.
The
Revolutionary Guards can try to employ their intelligence and sabotage
units, including the special operations unit for foreign operations
called “Kods” (5 to 15 thousand people), in order to organize sabotage
and scouting missions as well as assault operations against the military
bases and key infrastructure objects of the enemy on the Persian Gulf
coast.
Chances are good that a massive forestalling
attack on Iran by the aircraft and ballistic missiles of the Navy and
Air Force of the US/France/Great Britain/Israel can deprive the IRI of
its “trumps”, for example, such as the ballistic missiles.
Consequently,
our next material will discuss the current state and future
perspectives of the Iranian Air Force and missile defense and their
ability for resistance.
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