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جمعرات، 3 فروری، 2011

Egypt on verge of civil war

The current events in Egypt have put the country on the verge of civil war.
After January 25, the Egyptian crisis developed according to the following scenario: everyday the opposition put more and more pressure on the government, with crowds of people going into the streets demanding a change of the regime. This continued until February 2. On Wednesday, the supporters of President Hosni Mubarak organized counter-demonstrations in the capital and a number of other cities. The confrontation led to violent clashes with the use of guns. In the clashes on Cairo’s Tahrir Square several people were killed and hundreds were wounded.
The confrontation in Egypt has entered a new level. According to one version, that the roles of the president’s supporters were played by special services agents. To Adzhar Kurtov, an expert with the Institute of Strategic Studies this version sounds not very convincing. 
It is difficult to believe that the entire country, the whole population is expressing such hatred for the president. This is not the case, indeed. Mubarak does have supporters among Egyptians. Firstly, there are quite many of them, secondly they are ready to take decisive steps. Who are these supporters? Considering the fact that they tried to bring cavalry to the central square we can assume that these are people from the rural areas. As we can judge from historical experience village people tend to support strong and steady power, not to follow any revolutionaries and reformers.  
Those who believed that the fall of the regime was inevitable now will have to consider the stronger position of Hosni Mubarak, when the talks begin on the changes to the constitution and in the government. The crisis in Egypt should be regulated by political forces within the country, Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said. “We do not find it useful to impose any recipes and come up with any ultimatums”, the minister stressed.
The Egyptian society has been split, the economy is almost paralyzed. With tourists leaving Egypt the country’s income is decreasing. There have been difficulties with food supplies and some people do not even exclude the threat of hunger. The situation requires urgent steps to be taken.
The current crisis in Egypt is advantageous for Islamic radicals.  Speculation around it give the Muslim Botherhood organization an opportunity to come to power or at least to be represented in  the state organizations. This may have far reaching consequences for Egypt and the Middle East region in general, Sergey Pashkov, a reporter with the Rossiya TV channel in the Middle East, says.
The Israeli people are watching the events in Egypt attentively because Murbarak had been a reliable partner in talks and the man who under any circumstances tried to observe peace agreements which were signed before him by President Anwar Sadat with Israel. That is why any change of power in Egypt is a problem for Israel. They do not exclude they will have to start their relations with Egypt from scratch.
If the Islamists come to power in Egypt, this largest Arabic state which has been a stabilizing factor on the Middle East for many years, may completely change its political course. This is not an exaggeration. One of the leaders of the Muslim Botherhood Mohammed Ganem has already urged Egyptians to get ready for war against Israel. 
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