It is not one of the most well-guarded secrets that the US military establishment overwhelmingly prefers to work under a Republican Administration rather than a Democratic one. When we talk of the US military establishment, we talk at once of the Pentagon and CIA. The CIA doesn"t need any detailed introduction in the area of intelligence, considering its epoch-making and regime-breaking exploits and heroics in the past. But the militry dimensions that the CIA has probaly always enjoyed have come out into the open only recently with its known control over the US Drone Warfare. We are today living in the final year of Democratic Obama"s first term. It is a known fact that Obama dispite the generous concessions he has given to the Militry regarding both the wars (Iraq and Afghanistan) isn"t in the good book of the military establishment of America. Those who maner in this establishment will love to see the back of Obama in the months beyond November 4, 2012 when the US voters will go to the polls.
Obama"s chances of winning the second term have since long been depending upon his success in achieving most of his foreign policy goals. Economy is an area in which room for uncertainty is likely to remain substantially wide for quite some time to come Americans who had voted Bush into power on the strength of his warmongering, now are in no mood to put the lives of their soldier to risk and stake in a war that they find increasingly hard to indentify themselves with. Obama gave them a heartening news on May 2. 2011 about the end of the saga of Osama Bin Laden.
And then hastened to take steps towards talk witth the Taliban to facilitate and ensure the US troops withdrawal from the war theatre in the quickest possible time. Had he succeeded in his plans without too many hiccups, his election campaign would have been smooth and confident. But quite clearly the US Militry Establishment has other ideas.
First there was that unnecessary and unprovoked Salala incident that created a huge wedge between Pakistan and America. Then came abominable desecration of the Holy Quran. And then this insane incidence of a carefree American soldier going on a killing spree-targeting even Afghan children.
The result is quite clear Obama finds himself on the back foot. And his election chance slightly less bright than could have been the irony is that to brighten his chances now he needs to look far more howkish than the man he will faces in November 2012.
By Ghulam Akbar